As of April 3, 2026, Samsung Electronics is expected to post a record first-quarter operating profit of 40.5 trillion won ($26.9 billion) for January to March 2026, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate based on 29 analysts. That would be a six-fold jump from the same period last year and would be close to Samsung’s full-year profit from 2025. Some analysts are even more bullish, with Citi forecasting as high as 51 trillion won. The main reason is the strong rise in memory chip prices, which has been powered by heavy AI-related demand.
Why Samsung’s Profit Is Rising So Fast
Samsung’s earnings are being lifted by a strong cycle in memory chips. The company is the world’s biggest memory chip maker, so when chip prices rise, its profit can climb very quickly. Reuters reports that Samsung is benefiting from an “unprecedented supercycle” in memory chips, and analysts say the supply of memory chips is still tight. That shortage has helped push prices higher, while AI data center demand has kept orders strong. In simple words, Samsung is selling more chips at better prices, and that is the biggest reason profit is expected to soar.
AI Demand Is the Main Engine
The AI boom is one of the clearest reasons behind this surge. AI systems need large amounts of memory for training, inference, servers, and data storage. Reuters says the boom has created a severe shortage of memory chips, and TrendForce expects contract DRAM prices to keep rising strongly into the April-June period. Samsung has also raised prices of some memory chips by as much as 60% compared with September 2025, which shows how tight supply has become. This environment is very helpful for Samsung’s chip business, especially for conventional DRAM and server memory.
Samsung’s Last Quarter Was Already a Record
This expected jump is not coming out of nowhere. Samsung’s own 4Q 2025 earnings presentation shows that the company already delivered a record quarter before this. In 4Q 2025, Samsung reported 93.8 trillion won in sales and 20.1 trillion won in operating profit, while the full year 2025 reached 333.6 trillion won in sales and 43.6 trillion won in operating profit. The Device Solutions division, which includes memory, was the biggest driver, with 44.0 trillion won in sales and 16.4 trillion won in operating profit in the quarter. That strong base makes the new first-quarter forecast look even more powerful.
Memory Chips Are Carrying the Company
Samsung’s memory business is doing most of the heavy lifting. In the 4Q 2025 presentation, Samsung said it achieved record-high quarterly revenue and operating profit by meeting strong conventional DRAM demand, expanding HBM sales, and benefiting from higher overall prices. The company also said it improved profitability by selling more high-value products such as HBM, Server DDR5, and enterprise SSDs. This matters because these products are tied closely to AI infrastructure, cloud services, and data centers. In other words, Samsung is not just selling more chips; it is selling the kinds of chips that the AI market needs most.
HBM4 and New AI Products Could Help More
Samsung is also trying to strengthen its position in high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, which is important for AI chips. In its official outlook, Samsung said it plans to start delivering HBM4 mass products, including an industry-leading 11.7Gbps SKU. The company also said it will keep expanding AI-related sales through high-density DDR5, SOCAMM2, GDDR7, and high-performance SSDs. This is important because the AI market is not only about today’s demand. It is also about who can supply the next generation of faster and more efficient memory. Samsung clearly wants to turn this cycle into longer-term growth, not just a one-time earnings spike.
Other Businesses Are Not Stronger, But Chips Are Powerful Enough
Samsung is not strong in every area right now. Reuters says the company’s smartphone and display businesses are likely to see profits fall because memory costs are rising and competition is tough. Samsung’s contract chip manufacturing business is also expected to stay in the red, even though it recently got a lift from a partnership with Nvidia. So the company is not making money evenly across all divisions. Still, the memory chip business is so strong that it can outweigh weakness elsewhere. That is why overall profit can still hit a record even while some other parts of the business struggle.
The Big Risk: A Few Clouds in the Sky
Even with such strong numbers, Samsung still faces some risks. Reuters says investors are watching the impact of the Middle East war, which could raise energy costs and disrupt key supply materials. There are also signs that DRAM spot prices have softened a little, and some chip stocks have already come under pressure because of that. Google’s memory-saving TurboQuant technology has also created some concern in the market. These issues do not erase the strong profit outlook, but they do remind investors that the chip cycle can change fast. A very strong quarter can still come with a cautious view about the next one.
Samsung Says the Demand Is Still Strong
Even with these risks, many experts still believe the market is tight. Reuters quotes industry voices saying the recent cooling in memory prices may be temporary and that demand and backlog remain strong. Samsung’s own leadership has also tried to protect the business by talking with major customers about longer three-to-five-year supply contracts. That is a smart move in a fast-changing market because it can reduce price swings and help Samsung plan production better. For investors, this suggests Samsung is not just enjoying a short-term price jump. It is also trying to build a more stable business model around long-term AI demand.
What the Market Is Watching Now
The market is now focused on Samsung’s next earnings release and on whether the company can keep this momentum going into the second quarter of 2026. Reuters says the first-quarter result will be nearly as large as Samsung’s full-year profit from 2025, which is a huge signal of how strong the memory cycle has become. Investors are also looking at whether Samsung can close the gap with rivals in advanced AI memory, especially HBM. Samsung’s stock has already had a big run over the past year, so the next results need to do more than just beat estimates. They need to show that the company can keep growing beyond one hot quarter.
Why This Matters for Samsung’s Future
This moment matters because it may shape Samsung’s future strategy. If profit keeps rising, Samsung will have more room to invest in advanced chip tools, new factories, AI memory, and future product lines. It will also have more strength to support shareholder returns and balance weaker business areas. Samsung’s 4Q 2025 presentation already showed a clear plan: focus on high-value memory, improve HBM, and keep expanding AI-related products. If that plan works, the current profit surge may be the start of a longer growth story, not just a peak in one quarter.
Final Take
Samsung’s expected record quarterly profit surge is mainly being driven by one big force: AI memory demand. Prices are high, supply is tight, and Samsung is in the middle of the market that is benefiting most from the AI build-out. At the same time, the company still has weak spots in phones, display, and foundry, and there are real risks from global politics and shifting chip prices. Even so, the latest data shows a very clear picture: Samsung is heading into one of its strongest quarters ever, and the chip business is carrying the company to a new level of earnings power.
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